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☆ Bank of Japan needs to hike rates again as they're at an 'absurdly low level,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Japan needs to hike rates again as they're at an 'absurdly low level,' economist saysRob Carnell, Asia-Pacific chief economist and head of research at ING, says the central bank has its "work cut out" for it.

Persons: Rob Carnell Organizations: Email Bank of Japan, ING Locations: Asia, Pacific

☆ Good to see the Bank of Japan moving back into the 'realms of normality': ING economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGood to see the Bank of Japan moving back into the 'realms of normality': ING economistRob Carnell of ING discusses the Bank of Japan's historic decision to raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years.

Persons: Rob Carnell Organizations: Bank of Japan, ING, Bank of

The BOJ will now look to utilize its short-term interest rate as its primary policy tool. It will employ an interest rate of 0.1% to current account balances held by financial institutions at the central bank from March 21, while encouraging the uncollateralized overnight call rate (another interest rate used as a policy lever by the bank) to remain at around 0 to 0.1% — effectively raising interest rates from -0.1% previously. It would resort to "nimble responses" in the form of increased Japan government bond purchases and fixed-rate purchases of JGBs, among other things, if there is a rapid rise in long-term interest rates. Japanese investors have looked elsewhere for better returns given years of artificially depressed interest rates in their home market. The Fed is due to announce its own interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Persons: Japan Alexander Spatari, Kazuo Ueda, Rob Carnell, BOJ, Ueda, Michael Brown, —, JGBs, Vishnu Varathan, Hayden Briscoe, Briscoe Organizations: Japan's, Japan Inc, Asia, ING, CNBC, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Mizuho Financial Group, Bank of America, Barclays, U.S . Federal, UBS Asset Management Locations: Dotonbori, Japan, Japan's, U.S, Mizuho's, Asia

☆ Asian stocks hit 2-month high on Wall St rally, Fed view
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.91% higher at 509.82 having touched 510.42, the highest since Sept. 18. The index is up 7% for the month and on course for its biggest monthly gain since January. The index is up roughly 28% this year, making it the best performing stock market in Asia. Lower yields kept the dollar on the back foot, with the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six major currencies, down 0.058% at 103.37. The Australian dollar , often seen as a barometer of risk appetite, touched a three-month high of $0.65775 earlier in the session.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Hong, HSI, Wall, Sam Altman, Ben Bennett, Rob Carnell, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Rights, . Federal, Japan's Nikkei, Microsoft, Nvidia, Stock, Traders, Legal, General Investment Management, Treasury, OPEC, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Thursday's U.S, Russia, U.S, China

☆ Dollar down as markets bet Fed done with hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Brigid Riley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The offshore yuan briefly ticked up to a three-month high of $7.2385 against the dollar before easing back somewhat to $7.2477. The New Zealand dollar , which can act as a proxy for China, ticked up to a one-month high of $0.6029 against the dollar. Traders reacted quickly to the shift in market pricing by sending the dollar tumbling 1.5% overnight against major currencies. The dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of peers, last stood at 104.14, not far from Tuesday's two-month low of 103.98. With the dollar on the back foot, the euro settled around $1.08725 after touching its highest since August the previous day.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Rob Carnell, Carnell, Moh Siong Sim, Brigid Riley, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, of Research, ING, New Zealand, Traders, Treasury, Bank of Singapore, Thomson Locations: Asia, China, U.S, Lincoln

☆ Asia stocks slide as Powell comments quell rate peak bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The sombre mood is set to continue as Europe wakes up, with futures indicating a steeply lower open. Eurostoxx 50 futures were down 0.73%, German DAX futures dropped 0.66% and FTSE futures were 0.78% lower. The Fed is "committed to ... monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2% over time," Powell said at an International Monetary Fund event. U.S. rate futures have priced in about 60% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's June 2024 meeting, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, compared to odds of about 70% before Powell's speech. The oil market has been reeling this week on demand concerns, with a fading war-risk premium triggering a sell-off.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Powell, Jerome Powell, DAX, Rob Carnell, Powell's, ING's Carnell, there's, Hong, Tapas Strickland, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Tom Hogue Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Fed, . Federal, International Monetary Fund, ING, Investors, Reuters, Nasdaq, NAB, New, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, EUROPE, SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Europe, Beijing, New Zealand, Singapore

☆ Asian stocks slide as hawkish Powell comments weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A man works at the Tokyo Stock Exchange after market opens in Tokyo, Japan October 2, 2020. U.S. Federal Reserve officials including Powell said on Thursday they are still not sure interest rates are high enough to finish the battle with inflation. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes eased 1 basis point to 4.620% in Asian hours, having risen 10.7 bps overnight. In the currency market, the dollar index held on to its overnight gains and was last at 105.87. The oil market has been reeling this week on demand concerns, with a fading war-risk premium triggering a sell-off.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rob Carnell, Carnell, there's, Hong, Tapas Strickland, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Tom Hogue Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Fed, Japan's Nikkei, . Federal, International Monetary Fund, ING, Investors, Nasdaq, NAB, Treasury, New, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, Pacific, China, Beijing, New Zealand, Singapore

☆ Instant View: BOJ modifies bond yield control, re-defines long-term rate cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

But it's also likely the BOJ have their finger on the intervention button to cap any runaway rally on USD/JPY." Nevertheless, this is working in a way to increase the volatility of the global rates market. This means it will still have a certain distance until the BOJ exit from the negative rate policy." "A yield cap isn't a yield cap if you change it every time the market gets close." The Bank of Japan could lift the negative policy rate to zero over the coming year.

Persons: Kim Kyung, KYLE RODDA, MATT SIMPSON, JPY, it's, NOMURA, They've, TONY SYCAMORE, normalisation, TAKAYUKI MIYAJIMA, ROB CARNELL, they're, JEFF NG, TOM NASH, OMORI, SHOTARO KUGO, me, IZURU KATO, MARCEL THIELIANT, today's, FREDERIC NEUMANN, CHRISTOPHER WONG, BOJ's, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Bank of, Nikkei, SAXO, SONY, ING, UBS, CHIEF, DAIWA, OF, HSBC, Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, MELBOURNE, BRISBANE, SINGAPORE, TOKYO, U.S, SYDNEY, ASIA, PACIFIC, CHIEF JAPAN, stagflation, OF ASIA, YCC, HONG KONG

☆ Asian stocks slip on rate worries, yen in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Federal Reserve officials said that monetary policy will need to stay restrictive for "some time" to bring inflation back down to the Fed's 2% target. Still, the hawkish rhetoric from the Fed officials comes as an ongoing debate over another possible rate hike this year rages on. "If it were down to us, we would wait for another month of rising inflation and the third-quarter inflation numbers. The yen was last at 149.83 per U.S. dollar in Asian hours, having scaled a fresh near 12-month low of 149.895 earlier in the session. The dollar index , which measures the U.S currency against six major rivals, rose 0.093% to scale a fresh 10-month peak.

Persons: Hong, Michelle Bowman, Rob Carnell, Shunichi Suzuki, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Jamie Freed Organizations: Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, . Federal, Fed, Reserve Bank of, Reuters, ING, Japanese Finance, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia

☆ Data uncertainty from a US government shutdown suggests that the Fed will not hike rates: Economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailData uncertainty from a US government shutdown suggests that the Fed will not hike rates: EconomistRob Carnell of ING says that markets have embraced a "higher forever" mentality but thinks that the Fed will cut rates in 2024.

Persons: Rob Carnell Organizations: ING

☆ Stocks firmer after dip in euro zone inflation, dollar firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, June 29, 2023. REUTERS/StaffLONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - Global shares stocks were firmer on Friday after data showed that inflation in the euro zone continued to fall this month, and attention turned to U.S. prices figures before the opening bell on Wall Streeet. The dollar and U.S. stock index futures , were firm ahead of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index reading due at 1230 GMT, the Fed's favoured inflation gauge. Euro zone inflation fell to 5.5% in June as the cost of fuel tumbled, with Germany the only country to report an increase, with the European Central Bank still on course for a ninth consecutive rate hike next month, sending euro zone government bond yields higher.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Patrick Spencer, Baird, Spencer, Shunichi Suzuki, Rob Carnell, Hong, Brent, Gold, Huw Jones, Ankur Banerjee, Stephen Coates, Kim Coghill, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Staff LONDON, Global, U.S, Federal, European Central Bank, ECB, ING, Big Tech, Finance, Nikkei, Strong U.S, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S, Europe, CHINA, Asia, China, Pacific, Japan, Shanghai, Strong

☆ Asia shares steady as weak China data fuel stimulus hopes, yen frail
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Futures indicated European stocks were set for a higher open, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.18%, German DAX futures up 0.24% and FTSE futures 0.28% higher. But before that euro zone June inflation data will likely provide cues to the broader picture in the region, after data on Thursday showed German inflation rose more than expected in June. The strong economic data sent Treasury yields higher, with the yield on 10-year Treasury notes touching a three-month high of 3.868% on Thursday. China's blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) and the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) rose nearly 1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) was up 0.24% on stimulus hopes. U.S. crude was flat at $69.87 per barrel and Brent was at $74.49, up 0.2% on the day.

Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, DAX, Rob Carnell, Jerome Powell, Hong, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Stephen Coates, Kim Coghill Organizations: Federal Reserve, Finance, Investors, U.S, Reuters, Union, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Spain, Italy, U.S, Shanghai

The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 from 54.50 in May, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity and construction. Nomura has been the most bearish, cutting its forecast for growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 5.1% from 5.5%. "This indicates the urgent need for a more powerful package of policy measures... to ensure the annual growth targets," he added. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after badly missing its 2022 goal. China's cabinet this month pledged to promote a sustained economic recovery "in a timely manner".

Persons: Rob Carnell, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Nomura, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Li Qiang, ING's Carnell, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: . Services, National Bureau, Statistics, ING, Capital Economics, PMI, Jones, Reuters, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Asia, Pacific, Tianjin, Beijing

☆ Asia shares edge lower on rate hike worries, yen frail
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) fell 0.14% and the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) eased 0.11%. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to continued labour market strength. The data "will have traders likely consider a greater likelihood of further interest rate hikes from the Fed." "We expect the moderate pace of interest rate decisions to continue." The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was at 4.872%, having touched more than a three-month high of 4.892% overnight.

Persons: Australia's, HSI, Economists, Ryan Brandham, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rob Carnell, YEN, Shunichi Suzuki, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Stephen Coates Organizations: Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, Gross, Commerce Department, Validus Risk, Federal, Treasury, U.S, Central Bank's, Bank of Japan, Japanese Finance, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Shanghai, North America, U.S, Spanish, Madrid

☆ China starts to slow yuan's one-way slide
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Analysts said that together the moves showed official unease at the yuan's downward momentum and that they could slow but perhaps not halt a decline, given the dour economic outlook. "They are sending more signals now they're uncomfortable ... they would like to slow the yuan weakness," said Moh Siong Sim, a currency strategist at Bank of Singapore. The yuan ended Monday at a seven-month low of 7.2425 per dollar and was at 7.2105 in Tuesday afternoon trade. BACK FOOTThe push back comes as investors sour on China, with data showing China's vaunted rebound faltering. Analysts said moves to halt the yuan's slide were not yet as firm as last year, when regulators rolled out measures to encourage capital inflows, but might be enough to slow selling.

Persons: Yuan, Siong Sim, Stocks, Alvin Tan, We've, Rob Carnell, Carnell, That's, Ankur Banerjee, Tom Westbrook, Rae Wee, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: People's Bank of China, Analysts, Bank of Singapore, UBS, Australian, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Beijing, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, BEIJING, China, Hong Kong, Asia, Shanghai, Singapore

☆ Stocks stumble in jittery mood ahead of US inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

S&P 500 futures were steady and European futures rose 0.1%. "That's the thing that'd get taken out if CPI numbers come in on the higher side," said ING economist Rob Carnell. "It doesn't look particularly sensible if inflation is falling at too slow a rate and that could feed through into higher longer-term treasury yields as well." Interest rate futures imply about a 60% chance the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "But the debt ceiling drama, and market participants’ focus on rate cuts is unlikely to change much from one CPI report.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets on hold for US CPI
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom WestbrookSterling and the euro seem to be losing steam as currency markets tuck themselves in for a nap. Today's inflation data, due at 1230 GMT, could offer a jolt if the surprise factor is big enough. Economists polled by Reuters see core CPI steady at a monthly 0.4%. Beyond the inflation data, U.S. default risks and banking wobbles loom as the next likely focus. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:U.S. CPI dataReporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Edwina GibbsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stocks stumble as investors' nerves show ahead of US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - Stocks were struggling to advance in Asia and the dollar was firm on Wednesday ahead of U.S. consumer price data that could damage hopes for interest rate cuts later this year if inflation fails to show much of a decline. Overnight the S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 0.5% and S&P 500 futures were steady in the Asian morning. A firm U.S. dollar pushed the euro back below $1.10 to $1.0971. Treasuries were broadly steady overnight, though debt-ceiling brinkmanship is warping the bills market as investors avoid bills maturing early in June. The dollar was also firm at 135.14 yen and has lifted slightly from recent lows on the Aussie , kiwi and sterling .

☆ Asian shares surge, dollar slips after Fed hints at rate pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, March 23 (Reuters) - Asian shares spiked on Thursday and the dollar slid after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted it could pause interest rate rises following turmoil in the banking sector, though it also reiterated its commitment to fighting sticky inflation. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1% to touch a two-week high of 515.62. Wall Street ended sharply lower overnight as investors digested the Fed's policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference. In the currency market, the dollar index , which measures the dollar against other major currencies, fell nearly 0.5% to fresh seven week low of 101.92. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 10 basis points at 3.881%.

☆ Asian shares subdued after Fed hints at rate pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 23 (Reuters) - Asian shares inched higher on Thursday after the Federal Reserve hinted it could pause interest rate hikes following turmoil in the banking sector, though it also reiterated its commitment to fighting sticky inflation. In a widely expected move, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points but recast its outlook to a more cautious stance as a result of the banking stress. In the currency market, the dollar index fell 0.137%, with the euro up 0.25% at $1.0882. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 3.2 basis points at 3.468%, while the 30-year Treasury bond was down 1.5 basis points to 3.682%. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 1.1 basis points at 3.970%.

Markets remained fragile, with European bank stocks tumbling over 5% on Monday and U.S. banks set to open lower (.SX7P). Markets also moderated their view on UK rates and were pricing in a roughly 75% chance of a 25 bps hike when the Bank of England meets next week. Goldman Sachs said on Sunday the banking stress meant it no longer expected the Fed to hike rates next week. "It's not going to want to go clattering in with another 50 (bps hike) and see some other financial institution getting hosed." A new Fed bank funding scheme aimed at addressing some of Silicon Valley Bank's apparent problems with losses in its bond portfolio is expected to further help with stability for banks and bonds.

☆ Analysis: As banks break, markets hear the sound of peaking rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. interest rate futures surged and a hard-running rally in short-term bonds extended, putting two-year Treasuries on course for their best three-day gain since Black Monday in 1987. "If (U.S. Fed Chair Jerome) Powell lifts interest rates next week, he will jeopardise this situation," he added. At 4.4098% they are also below the bottom end of the Fed funds rate window at 4.5% - a sign markets see rates' peak is near. "I think people are linking Silicon Valley Bank's problems with the rate hikes we've already had," said ING economist Rob Carnell. "If rates going up caused this, the Fed is going to mindful of that in futures," he said.

The yen weakened and Japanese government bond yields plunged after the Bank of Japan opted to keep stimulus settings steady at Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's last meeting in charge, as expected. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield, which the BOJ pins within 50 basis points either side of zero, pulled back sharply from that ceiling to last sit at 0.445%. The yen was last down about 0.4% at 136.615 per dollar after a knee-jerk drop of as much as 0.6%. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) pared declines to last be down around 1%, compared to a 1.23% loss prior to the central bank decision. S&P 500 futures were down 0.57%, following the cash index (.SPX) dropping 1.8% and falling below its 200-day moving average.

☆ Markets have 'completely given up' on hopes of a Fed pivot this year, ING says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets have 'completely given up' on hopes of a Fed pivot this year, ING saysRob Carnell of ING discusses the outlook for markets in the context of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

☆ Asian shares rise, dollar staggers after 'dovish' Powell comments
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.51% higher, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.69%. China's shares (.SSEC) was set to open 0.1% higher, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) was 0.22% higher. Asian shares tracked Wall Street, which ended higher in choppy trading as investors digested Powell's speech. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, was at 103.30, having dropped to as low as 102.99 in the previous session. The Japanese yen was flat at 131.08 per dollar, after surging 1.2% in the previous session.

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